安全与绿色贸易:提升与中国贸易关键的软硬商品安全和可持续性的五项建议.pdf

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CCICED ChinaCouncil forInternational Cooperation on EnvironmentandDevelopment(CCICED) Secure and GreenTrade: FiveRemendationsforImproving the Security and Sustainability of SelectedSoftandHardCommodities Criticalto ChineseTrade CCICEDSpecialPolicyStudyReport CCICED August 2023
Special Policy Study Members Co-chairs*: Craig Hanson International Co-Leader Managing Director Programs World Resources Institute YU Miaojie Chinese Leader; Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee President and Professor Liaoning University Special Policy Study Members*: Anne Rosenbarger Fellow for Projct POTICO in the People and Ecosystems Program World Resources Institute Caroline Winchester Senior Manager Supply Chains Strategy World Resources Institute FU Xiaotian Director China Food and Natural Resources Program World Resources Institute China PENG Liqing Food and Agriculture Modeler World Resources Institute Tina Schneider Director Forest Governance and Policy World Resources Institute Rod Taylor Global Director Forests Program World Resources Institute TIAN Wei Associate Professor School of Economics Peking University CHEN Xinyu PhD Student National School of Development Peking University CHEN Zhuoyu PhD Student National School of Development Peking University HU Qishan PhD Student National School of Development Peking University Research Support Team: FAN Shenggen Chair Professor and Dean Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy China Agricultural University JIANG Haiwei Assistant Professor School of Intermational Economics and Trade Central University of Finance and Economics LI Zhiyuan Deputy Director and Professor Department of World Economics School of Economics Fudan University MA Xiangjun Professor Department of Economics Liaoning University Moazzam Malik Managing Director Global Delivery World Resources Institute Morgan Gillespy Program Director Food and Land Use Coalition at World Resources Institute PAN Yishan Secretary of the Party Commitee and Professor Liaoning University Tim Searchinger Senior Fellow and Technical Director Food Program World Resources Institute YU Hongjun Deputy Director of School Affairs Committee Former Executive Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Professor Peking University ZHAO Wei Program Officer UN Food and Agriculture Organization China Office ZHOU Haobo Former Secretary of the Party Committe and Professor Liaoning University ZHANG Yuyan Member Academic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Director Institute of World Economics and Politics Coordinators: FU Xiaotian Director China Food and Natural Resources Program World Resources Institute China CHEN Xinyu PhD Student National School of Development Peking University * The co-leadersand members of this SPS sere in their pesonal capcities. The viws and pinis expresed in this SPS repor are those of the individual experts participating in the SPS Tem and do not represent those of their organizations and CCICED.
Table of Contents EXECUTIVESUMMARY 1CONTEXT 1 1.1 CHINESE GOVERNMENT ASPIRATIONS 1.2 EXTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 2 2 POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERAL SOFT COMMODITIESIMPORTANT TO CHINESE TRADE 6 2.1 SOYBEANS 6 2.2 BEEF 8 2.3 PALM OIL 9 2.4 IMPETUS FOR “DEFORESTATION- AND CONVERSION-FREE" SOY BEEF AND PALM OIL 10 3POSSIBLEIMPLICATIONSFORCHINESEINDUSTRY SUPPLY CHAINS 12 3.1 DEFINITION 12 3.2 STYLIZED FACTS OF CHINA'S EXPORT CARBON EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY 12 3.3 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING EXPORT CARBON EMISSION 14 4POLICYRECOMMENDATIONS 16 REFERENCES 23 ACKNOWLEDGE 26
List of Figures Figure I: Canada-EU Trade in Environmental Goods in Emillion 3 Figure 2: China’s soybeans consumption between 2014-2020 (million tons) 6 Figure 3: Global soybeans importers 7 Figure 4: China’s gradually growing imports of soybeans 7 Figure 5: China's beef production and imports 8 Figure 6: Global beef importers (2000-2030) 8 Figure 7: Per capita beef consumption in China (2011-2021) 9 Figure 8: China’s consumption and imports of palm oil 10 Figure 9: Technologies that enable due diligence and traceability across the value chain 18 List of Tables Table 1: Export carbon emissions in WIOD industry in 20104 12 Table 2: Export carbon emissions in WIOD industry in 2014 13 Table 3: The main regression results 14 Table 4: Main estimated coefficient in WIOD industry 15 List of Boxes Box 1. Corporate examples of traceability 18 Box 2. Syngenta’s Reverte program 18 Box 3. Corporate and government-led examples of due diligence and traceability 20

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